Ontario Votes: In the Home Stretch
Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca Source: The Globe and Mail
In the Home Stretch
We are officially one week away from the Ontario provincial election. Over the past two weeks the party leaders have had the opportunity to participate in the debate and hit the campaign trail across the province. As the finish line comes into sight, where are we now and what are the trends that will dominate the final days of the campaign?
Candidates ahead of the Debate
The Debate
On May 16th, the leaders debate pitted each of the candidates head to head over the course of two hours. This was an opportunity for the Liberals, NDP and Greens to boost stagnant polling numbers through the early days of the campaign. Doug Ford had the most to lose coming into the debate with a considerable lead in the polls, therefore, it was no surprise that we saw a rather subdued Doug Ford. So how did each leader do? What were their prevailing messages? And most importantly, how did each of the leaders grade?
Debate Report Card:
PC Leader Doug Ford
Doug Ford Progressive Conservative
Highlights: “When you were running the economy it was going downhill faster than the Canadian Bobsled Team”
Stumbles: Reading from a binder
Grade: C-
Doug Ford and his team have managed this campaign to ensure that he stays on script and limits engagement with media where he can get side tracked. This debate carried the most risk for Doug Ford and that was evident from the onset of the debate. Opening statements in televised debates are incredibly important as they provide a first impression for the audience and undecided voters. Doug Ford had a scripted opening statement which he was reading off a binder. One of the main criticisms of Ford throughout this campaign has been his reluctance to stray from the script and teleprompter, this was certainly the case in the beginning moments of the campaign wherein he was more focused on the binder on the podium than the camera in front of him.
Note: Candidates were not allowed to have notes or prepared statements on or in their podium.
NDP Leader Andrea Horwath
Andrea Horwath NDP
Highlights: The end.
Stumbles: Interruptions and struggled to carry key message
Grade: D
Ontario voters have become all too familiar with NDP leader Andrea Horwath as she has held the position since 2009. Ms. Horwath usually puts forward a strong performance in debates and in doing so gives her party a boost. This was certainly the case in the 2018 election which saw the NDP surge to take the official opposition. However, this time around Horwath seemed disjointed at the beginning as her opening statement lacked substance and clear deliverables. As the debate carried on Ms. Horwath seemed to run out of time just before delivering her key message which often left her trying to get her key points across over the voice of the moderator. Perhaps most frustrating for viewers watching at home it was having to deal with Ms. Horwath interrupting the other candidates during the debate. While Doug Ford was perfectly content to sit back and let the debate unfold and Steven Del Duca picked his spots to jump it, Horwath was very much on the offensive both when Ford and Del Duca were granted their time to speak. This interrupted the flow of the debate and definitely can be portrayed as a negative toward the NDP leader when considering debate performances.
Ontario Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca
Steven Del Duca Ontario Liberal Party
Highlights: Strong communication on policy platform.
Stumbles: Repetitive at times
Grade: A-
Liberal leader Steven Del Duca entered the debate as a relatively unknown candidate for those outside of political circles. The debate was an important opportunity for Del Duca to make a first impression with many Ontario voters tuning in. From the onset of the debate Del Duca carried a carefully planned and well executed message. When challenged on his statements Mr. Del Duca was quick to point out his key points and keep his strategy on track. Overall it was an impressive debate for Mr. Del Duca who carried himself well to the finish and made a good case as to why he would be a good premier. At times throughout the debate Del Duca did seem to get a bit repetitive, particularly when referring to his family and children. That aside it was mission accomplished for Del Duca in making a strong first impression with voters tuning in across the province.
Green Party Leader Mike Schriner
Mike Schriner Ontario Green Party
Highlights: Strong communication on key policy platforms.
Stumbles: Sometimes lacked assertiveness.
Grade: A
Mike Schriner always seems to punch above his weight when it comes to debates and this time was no exception. Mr. Schriner was able to present plainly many of the issues facing Ontarians and clearly provided policy solutions which on the surface seemed practical. Schriner’s calm and steady approach likely played favourably with viewers and may result in a bump in votes in early June. Overall, the Green Party and their supporters should be happy with the debate performance from Mike Schriner.
Emerging Trends
Health Care: Following the COVID-19 pandemic the health care system in Ontario is facing major backlogs. The system right now has been described as broken. Needless to say the winner of this election will have a significant challenge ahead of them in addressing the backlog which has significantly affected the standard of care in the province. Each of the party’s plan to address this backlog the following ways:
Progressive Conservative Party: Doug Ford indicated that he would move to mobilize the private sector to help in relieving the backlog in imaging, procedures and surgeries. The Ford campaign has also promised a number of hospitals to be built but the time horizon on these projects in most cases is over ten years.
Ontario Liberal Party: Steven Del Duca promised funding to address the backlog which would extend hours, in addition the Liberals would work to hire more health care workers to sustain the system moving forward.
NDP: Andrea Horwath has promised to hire 30,000 nurses to address the backlog in the healthcare system.
Ontario Green Party: Similar to the NDP the Green Party has promised to invest in the people that operate the healthcare system through wage increases and hiring.
Affordability: Housing, gas prices and generational inflation have caused the cost of living in Ontario to skyrocket. Each of the parties have addressed this issue in their platforms through proposing the following:
Progressive Conservative Party: The PC’s have promised to cut the gas tax, keep tolls off of highways 412 and 418 and increase housing supply by building 1.5-million homes over the next ten years.
Ontario Liberal Party: Steven Del Duca has promised to tackle affordability through eliminating the provincial portion of the HST on prepared meals under twenty dollars. The liberals will also replace the minimum wage with a regional living wage. And on the housing front the Liberals have committed to building 1.5-million homes over the next ten years while imposing a new province wide rent control to keep the monthly cost of rent down.
NDP: The NDP have an extensive plan to address affordability issues in the province, the NDP has proposed that they will; end exclusionary zoning, build 250,000 affordable homes and crack down on speculation. In addition the NDP have committed to make rent more affordable through introducing rent control which will ensure that new tenants renting a unit will pay the same as the last tennant, help pay the rent of 311,000 households and reinstate the right to in-person hearings at the landlord tenants board. In addition the NDP will try to help Ontarians out through working to achieve lower auto insurance rates in the province through exploring a number of options including ending postal code discrimination.
As the election creeps up these trends are likely to prevail through June 2nd. Health Care is a major issue in the province right now so watch for the leaders to gain the edge through jockeying health care promises.
