Ontario Votes: Election. What Election?

Eh-Political 

Ontario Votes: Election. What Election?

by Andrew Payne on May 16, 2022

The first full week of the Ontario Provincial Election is officially in the books. To say that the beginning of the campaign has been slow would be an understatement. These first days of the election have generally spared Ontarians from the usual bombardment of political ads that we tend to see in the election. Which begs the question Election. What Election? In this article we float some theories as to why the start to this campaign has been so slow and highlight some early emerging stories.

Hockey Before Politics

The official start of the election overlapped with the beginning of the NHL playoffs. Going into round one the Toronto Maple Leafs were considered to be a top contender to make a Stanley Cup run. This meant that names like Austin Matthews, John Travares and Jack Campbell were trending on social media and amongst Ontarians instead of the early developments of the election. Early polling data suggests that this may have been the case as there was virtually significant movement in the polls for the parties, with the exception of the NDP who seem to be trending downward. This early trend of Hockey Before Politics certainly benefited Doug Ford. As the frontrunner in the election race having a distracted electorate can provide for a significant advantage as the other parties try to gain traction. On the contrary, the distraction provided by the NHL playoffs has provided a number of roadblocks for both the NDP and Liberals.  In particular Steven Del Duca who is still relatively unknown to most Ontarians. 

Over the coming days this trend will begin to subside as the Toronto Maple Leafs continued their annual spring tradition by exiting the playoffs in the first round. As we move into the week which marks the halfway point of the provincial campaign it will be interesting to see if the leaders of the NDP and Liberals can begin to claw back. Monday’s (May 16th) debate will be the first major event of the campaign after the Leafs were eliminated from the playoffs. This may be the only chance for both Horwath and Del Duca to make significant strides in a toe to toe face off with Doug Ford. The outcome of Monday’s debate will likely set the course for the remainder of the election campaign. Should the Liberals or NDP fail to deliver a significant knockout punch then the road back to the premiers office for Doug Ford will be all but secure, barring a major revelation in the second half of the campaign. 

Media Fatigue

Let’s face it, the past two years have been difficult. At this point we are only five months removed from the COVID-19 pandemic persistently dominating the headlines. Since the implementation and subsequent removal of the latest set of COVID restrictions  in January 2022 the news cycle has continued to be dominated by historically significant events both at home and abroad. 

The trucker convoy, the war in Ukraine, cost of living crisis, racial and political unrest in the United States have dominated the headlines and social media trends through the first half of this year. For many Ontarians this has led them to unplugging from the news cycle or just becoming passive to the bombardment of headlines. Media fatigue may be another reason as to why the beginning of this election has lacked inspiration. There is just too much else going on for the general population of Ontario to be engaged in the election race. 

source: Abacus Data

An Abacus Data poll released on May 16th, indicated that only few Ontarians are paying attention to the ongoing election. In fact, 51% of the Ontarians polled indicated that they were not following the election closely or at all. Should this trend continue it will once again stand to benefit Doug Ford as the front runner and subsequently serve as an obstacle to the opposition parties as they try to convince Ontarians that they are the better option. 

Early Speed Bumps 

Although the first days of the campaign have been relatively slow the end of the first week saw a number of scandals and political speed bumps emerge affecting each party: 

Stephen Lecce and The Slave Auction

On May 11th, news broke that the the PC incumbent for the riding of King-Vaughan, Steven Lecce, was involved in a Slave Auction event at the Western University chapter of Sigma Chi in 2006. The Toronto Star reports that Lecce issued a two line apology and is looking to distance himself from the headline. Mr. Lecce is a high profile candidate who held the position of Minister of Education through the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Vetting Issues in Sault Ste. Marie

On May 10th, the Liberal Party came under fire when the local riding association acclaimed a 18-year old high school student as its candidate and then dropped him within twenty-four hours when reports surfaced that an indigenous lawyer was passed over by the party for the candidacy to represent the riding of Sault Ste. Marie. Naomi Sayers, the indigenous lawyer who was passed over for the candidacy was told by the party that the party did not have sufficient time to analyze all of the vetting documentation that she provided and therefore could not proceed to nominate her as the candidate. Ms. Sayers will now run as an independent in the upcoming election. The Liberal party which struggled to fill the candidate slate before the election was called will not be running a candidate in Sault Ste. Marie. 

Former NDP MPP Sues Andrea Horwath

On May 10th, former NDP MPP Paul Miller launched a $1.3-million dollar lawsuit against the NDP, Andrea Horwath and two other party officials stating that the party and its leadership were in breach of contract. The claim alleges that Ms. Horwath and two other high ranking party officials engaged in a conspiracy to have Mr. Miller removed from caucus through a fabricated story that he was involved in an online hate group. Mr. Miller will run as an independent in the riding of Hamilton East-Stoney Creek in the upcoming election. 

Polling Data Ahead of the Debate

The May 16th debate may prove to be significant if any of the trailing parties can rattle Doug Ford. The PC party has a significant lead in the polls coming into the debate so the highest amount of risk sits on the shoulders of Doug Ford. Look for the opposition to focus in on Ford’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic which just over a year ago had him polling as the least popular Premier in Canada. Following the debate Eh-Political will break down the winners and losers and what it may mean for the remainder of the campaign. For some context the latest polling data ahead of the debate is as follows; 

source: CBC Poll Tracker

Both of the poll sets suggest that the race is beginning to tighten slightly as the PC party has lost about two points since the start of the campaign. The polls suggested that the Liberals had some early momentum, however it has recently slowed. As for the NDP the first two weeks of the race have been a roller coaster which have seen their numbers go up and down, however, in the last week have started to pull closer to the Liberals. At this point in the race the polls show an overwhelming probability of a PC majority on June 2nd barring an absolute meltdown.  As mentioned earlier this may be the only shot for either the Liberals or the NDP to start that meltdown, however each party has enormous odds to overcome.