Ontario Votes - Breaking Down the Ontario Election
Premier Doug Ford at the Podium Following June 2nd, 2022 Election win. Source: The Hamilton Spectator
by Andrew Payne on Jun 6, 2022
Easy Pickings
If there was ever any doubt about the possible outcomes of the Ontario election leading up to June 2nd, that was quickly cast aside when media outlets began calling the election for Doug Ford 11-minutes after the polls closed. Premier Ford and his Progressive Conservative (PC) party cruised to another majority and will hold power in Ontario for at least four more years. The result was of no particular surprise as the PC party held significant advantages in the polls throughout the short four-week election campaign. Perhaps the most surprising development of the election was the Liberal’s inability to gain any traction under Leader Steven Del Duca. Although the Liberal party came second in the popular vote they were only able to secure 8 seats, once again leaving the party below the threshold of official party status in the House. The NDP was able to hold on to form official opposition, however lost nine seats in the process, this led to the resignation of party Leader Andrea Horwath who has been at the helm since 2008. Overall, this election was a resounding landslide for Doug Ford and the PC party, it will also be remembered as an election wherein the electorate was not at all engaged and in turn one of the most inconsequential elections in Ontario’s history.
Breaking Down the Results
Ontario Election Results Map. Source: CBC
A blue wave swept across Ontario resulting in an even larger majority for Premier Doug Ford and the Progressive Conservative Party. The results are as follows:
For many voters this result certainly brings into question a number of issues with the electoral system in Ontario and Canada more generally. Over the next few articles Eh-Political will delve into the first past the post electoral system and provide some insight as to why this may be affecting voter turnout and overall apathy toward elections. When looking at the popular vote and the votes to seat ratio it is easy to understand why Liberal supporters in Ontario may feel as if their vote didn’t count in this election.
Lowest Turnout…Ever
Throughout the election campaign Eh-Political discussed the general disinterest in this election and explored a number of reasons, ranging from hockey playoffs to media burnout, as to why this may be the case. The writing was certainly on the wall that turnout would be down for this particular election. Early data suggests that only 4.6-million out of 10.7-million eligible voters cast a vote on June 2nd. The 43% voter turnout is the lowest ever in the history of Ontario. This represents a considerable decline from 2018 wherein 58% of eligible voters participated in the provincial election which handed Doug Ford his first majority government. For political observers this is a concerning development as it follows a steady trend of voter participation decline over the past thirty years. In fact, voter participation has not been recorded at over 60% since 1990.
The Hands Off Pay Off
Doug Ford and his team knew that the polling data was in their favour from the moment the writ dropped. As such, the Progressive Conservative strategy was to keep Ford at an arm's length from the media and major campaign events. Over the four-week election period Premier Ford was barely available to the media, including after the debates where he missed the scrums altogether. This hands-off strategy kept Ford from making any major campaign mistakes and inevitably paid off in delivering an even larger majority mandate for him and his party.
Old Faces Same Result
Liberal Leader Steven Del Duca Speaks to Supporters Following Loss Source: The Globe and Mail
Despite the polls favouring Doug Ford throughout the entirety of the election each of the opposing leaders missed an opportunity to gain any significant traction. Just over a year ago, in April 2021, Ontario was heading back into stringent lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic and Premier Ford was the least popular premier in all of Canada with approval ratings below 28%. There are many story lines which have emerged from this election; from low voter turnout to yet another blue wave across Ontario. Yet, one of the most consequential stories was the inability for both the Liberals and NDP to make any progress so soon after Premier Ford seemed to be on political life support just over a year ago. The results were so bad for each of the opposing leaders that they both resigned. So, what happened and why were Horwath and Del Duca unable to seize the opportunity to move their party forward in this Election?
Steven Del Duca and The Ghost of Liberal Past
Leading into the final week of the election polling data suggested that the real race on June 2nd would be between the Liberals and NDP for the official opposition. In order for this to happen the Liberal Party would have had to pick up a significant number of seats. If the party was able to do that it would have been considered a considerable success for this campaign. However, the results for the Liberal party could not have been much worse. The Liberal Party of Ontario for the second election in a row has failed to secure the 12 seats necessary to achieve official party status at Queens Park. Next to losing seats this is the worst-case scenario for the party, which is now leaderless.
The disappointment for the Liberals was combined with embarrassment when their Leader Steven Del Duca failed to secure his seat in Vaughan-Woodbridge. In fact, the race for that riding wasn’t even close. The incumbent Michael Tibollo, who has been followed by controversy throughout his career ranging from allegations of racism and securities and mortgage fraud, handily defeated Del Duca by a margin of 18%. There are a number of factors which should be considered here when dissecting Del Duca’s epic failure in this election, some his fault, some not.
Steven Del Duca was a prominent Cabinet Minister during Kathleen Wynne’s time as Premier. When the Ontario Liberal’s chose Mr. Del Duca as their leader, they were betting that the resentment for Kathleen Wynne would be forgotten by Ontario voters. This was not the case. During the election it was easy for Liberal opponents to point to Del Duca’s close relationship with Premier Wynne as he held many high-profile Cabinet Minister roles. Ontario voters sent a clear message that they still very much dislike Kathleen Wynne and those who surrounded her during her time as Premier. Steven Del Duca represented the old liberal party and failed to inspire Ontarians to vote for his vision for the province.
Another factor which worked against Steven Del Duca and the Ontario Liberals is the unpopularity of the Federal Liberal Party and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Angus-Reid shows that 57% of Canadians disapprove of the job that the Prime Minister is doing. In fact, Trudeau’s most recently available approval rating provided by Angus-Reid in March of 2022 was recorded at 39%, this is lower than the average approval rating of Donald Trump during his time as President (41% - Gallup). The Ontario Liberals connection to the Federal Liberal Party certainly worked against them in this election as most voters in Ontario disapprove of the work being done by the Prime Minister.
In addition to these broader political currents Mr. Del Duca also stumbled out of the gate and was not out in front of many issues that were clearly in his control as leader of the party. When the writ dropped and the election campaign officially began the Ontario Liberals did not have a full slate of candidates nominated to run in the election. Key GTA ridings such as Barrie-Innisifil didn’t announce their candidate until the late deadline well after the campaign began. In Sault Ste. Marie, the most prominent scandal of the campaign emerged when the Liberal riding association acclaimed a high-school student as their candidate over Naomi Sayers, a female indigenous lawyer. This fumble led to the Ontario Liberals retracting the nomination of the high schooler, but still decided not to move forward with Ms. Sayers. Del Duca’s inability to ensure that his party had a full slate of candidates ahead of the election, which took place on a set date, can be considered a failure of leadership and can be attributed to the poor performance by his party in this election.
The Erosion of Horwath’s Base
Andrea Horwath Addresses Supporters Following June 2nd, 2022 Election. Source: CP24
Coming into this election NDP leader Andrea Horwath held the distinction of being the longest serving party leader having held her position since 2008. Ms. Horwath was able to boost the NDP to official opposition status in 2018 and polled favourably amongst Ontario voters. However, this time around the NDP lost nine seats under Horwath’s leadership and although the party managed to hold on to form the official opposition the overall campaign was considered a failure by the party leading to the inevitability of Ms. Horwath’s resignation. Although Horwahth continued to poll favourably in terms of approval she was unable to mobilize and retain her base amongst labour in Ontario.
The NDP base predominantly consists of supporters from within the labour unions in Ontario. During this election the NDP failed to secure the support of a number of large unions in the construction sector which instead opted to publicly support Premier Ford in his bid for re-election. This dealt a significant blow to the party’s prospects of forming government for the first time since 1990. The erosion of the NDP base can in part be attributed to the work of Ontario Minister of Labour Monte McNaughton who was able to convince a number of unions to support the Progressive Conservative Party. The consequences of the loss of support from key unions in Ontario may affect the NDP for years to come.
What Comes Next for Ontario?
Doug Ford at a Highway 413 announcement
Doug Ford received an astounding majority mandate from the people of Ontario. This means that Ford will be unobstructed in moving forward with key initiatives such as the construction of highways 413 and the Bradford Bypass.
Moving into this term there are a number of prominent issues Ford will have to work to address should he wish to maintain his popularity. Key issues include:
Healthcare Backlog: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a massive backlog in the Ontario health care system, testing, imaging and surgeries are so backed up that citizens are experiencing extremely long wait times to receive necessary treatment. The standard of care in the Ontario health care system is inadequate, this will be an issue that premier Ford will have to address immediately or face the political consequences of allowing the collapse of the health care system under his watch.
Cost of Living: The global economy is grappling with generational inflation being fueled by supply chain issues stemming from COVID-19 outbreaks in China and the ongoing war in Ukraine. Inflation has significantly increased the cost of living for all Ontarians who are feeling the pain at the pumps and in the grocery stores. Although many of the factors causing inflation are out of the control of the provincial government Premier Ford will have to find some creative policy and tax levers to pull should he intend on keeping his promise of putting more money in the pockets of Ontarians.
Cost of Housing: A key point of discussion during this election was the increasing cost of housing in Ontario. Premier Ford has promised to help solve this problem by getting 1.5-million housing units built over the next ten years. This ambitious plan faces a number of significant hurdles including a lack of skilled workers in the province.
As Premier Ford transitions into his second term at Queens Park the real question will be how long will the honeymoon period last and how will he address the mounting issues the province is facing?
As always, Eh-Political will be monitoring the provincial government and providing analysis through the form of newsletter and policy briefings. If you have any questions as to how the election results may affect your business or organization, please don’t hesitate to reach out through the Johnstone Karl Strategy website.
