Canada This Week Oct. 28-Nov. 1, 2024
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has vowed to his party’s support of the government this week unless two private members bills supporting supply management and old age security are passed.
Deadline Drama – Liberal Government Teetering
This week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces two deadlines that could significantly impact his leadership support and his government’s hold on power in Ottawa.
On Monday, a deadline imposed by members of his party urging him to consider stepping down as leader will pass. Last week, Trudeau responded to this ultimatum from Liberal backbenchers, defiantly stating that he is "not going anywhere" while standing in front of twenty supporters, primarily Cabinet Ministers. His response, made well before the deadline, further isolates dissenting voices within the federal Liberal Party and reflects yet another crack in the weakening foundation on which his government currently stands.
Tuesday brings another deadline that the Liberals are expected to let pass. This deadline, set by the Bloc Québécois (BQ) earlier in the fall, calls for the government to pass two private members' bills aimed at strengthening supply chain protections for Canadian commodities and increasing Old Age Security payments for seniors.
Both bills are currently at different stages of consideration in Parliament. Bill C-282, An Act to Amend the Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Act (the supply management bill), is currently in the Senate and faces concerns that it might restrict Canadian trade representatives from effectively negotiating in non-supply-managed sectors. Despite Trade Minister Mary Ng’s written request to expedite the bill, the Senate has continued to deliberate. The Senate Foreign Affairs Committee will hold hearings on the bill on Wednesday and Thursday this week, likely missing the BQ deadline and spelling more trouble for the Liberal government.
Bill C-319, An Act to Amend the Old Age Security Act, proposes increased payments for Canadians aged 65–74 and is estimated to cost $16 billion over the next five years. BQ leader Yves-François Blanchet has pushed this bill to solidify senior support in Quebec, the only province not contributing to the CPP. Currently, the bill is stalled at the third reading due to a privilege motion debate, which has created a backlog in House of Commons business. This delay means that neither of the BQ’s demands will be met by the deadline.
Bloc Québécois Pulls Support
The Bloc Québécois has vowed to withdraw support from the minority Liberal government as Tuesday’s deadlines pass, meaning both the BQ and the Conservatives will no longer back any government confidence motions. However, the NDP’s continued support is expected to keep the Liberals in power for now.
This brings us back to the group of Liberal backbenchers who recently called for Trudeau’s resignation. Should a confidence motion come before the House of Commons, will these backbenchers stand with the government? This raises the question: how much longer can Trudeau and the Liberals hold onto power?
Cheques for Everyone
On Wednesday, the Ontario government will present its fall economic statement, providing an update on the province’s fiscal status this year. The statement, often considered a mini-budget, is expected to include several funding announcements. Ahead of its release, Premier Doug Ford has announced that the government will issue $200 cheques to an estimated 12.5 million adults and 2.5 million children. This initiative, expected to cost over $3 billion, is funded by a surplus attributed to increased HST revenues resulting from inflation.
Many political commentators are questioning Ford’s motives for issuing such a broad handout. Ford currently holds a comfortable lead in the polls, with the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party leading by 14%. Polling data from 338 Canada suggests that if an election were held today, Ford would likely secure an 88-seat majority. Some political advisors are encouraging him to call an early election, especially given the struggles of opposition leaders Marit Stiles and Bonnie Crombie to gain traction. However, with just over half of his mandate remaining and the next provincial election not due until June 2026, insiders say Ford is hesitant to call an early election and would prefer to focus on his legislative agenda.
For those anticipating a provincial election soon, it seems they will have to wait. The Ford government is expected to advance this fall economic statement into a full budget in the spring, continuing its legislative efforts on infrastructure and housing.
New Temporary Foreign Worker Rules Take Effect
On Monday, new Temporary Foreign Worker (TFW) Program rules will come into effect following public concerns about potential program abuse, which may have contributed to a rise in youth unemployment. The revised TFW Program aims to ensure protections for the Canadian job market and address domestic unemployment concerns. Key changes include an increased wage threshold for high-wage stream roles and stricter requirements for employers in the low-wage stream. Employers in low-wage roles must now provide return transportation, secure suitable housing, and prioritize Canadian workers through additional recruitment steps. Additionally, businesses in non-essential sectors may only employ TFWs as 10% of their workforce, with some exceptions in agriculture, healthcare, and construction.
Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) will no longer be processed for low-wage jobs in regions with an unemployment rate of 6% or higher unless those jobs are tied to essential sectors. This move is expected to reduce TFW Program participation and encourage employers to employ underrepresented Canadian groups, such as youth and persons with disabilities. These reforms reflect Canada’s commitment to a sustainable labor market, emphasizing fair wages, job protections, and reduced dependency on temporary foreign labor.
