American Election 2024: America Votes, The World Watches
Today is Decision Day: America Votes, and the World Waits
Today, Americans cast their final ballots in one of the closest and most consequential presidential elections in recent memory. However, it may be days before a clear winner emerges. Polls indicate a deadlock between the candidates, suggesting that vote counting could extend well into the week. The stakes are high, and the outcome will have far-reaching effects not only in the United States but also across the border in Canada.
Here’s what to expect, along with potential scenarios if either candidate wins.
Election Results: A Nail-Biter with No Clear Frontrunner
Heading into Tuesday night, the only certainty is that polls show no clear frontrunner, making this race too close to call. Pollsters have refined their methods since 2016, when they famously missed Donald Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton despite her apparent lead in most major polls. Now, two election cycles later, pollsters claim to have addressed these issues. But 2024 is also the first “normal” election post-2016, with 2020’s results heavily influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on voter behavior.
While 2024 is expected to be different, it’s unclear if polling models can fully capture these new dynamics. This uncertainty has left both campaigns and analysts wary that the results might either reflect Tuesday night’s polls or, as in 2016, fall far from them. The unpredictability of this race has made it almost impossible for anyone to confidently forecast the outcome.
What the Polls Are Saying
As of Tuesday morning, poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight shows Kamala Harris with a slight 1.2% lead in national polls and a 50 out of 100 chance of winning, based on the latest model. The same model gives Trump a 49 out of 100 chance, reflecting a statistical tie as voting wraps up. Notably, FiveThirtyEight observed a shift over the weekend, with Harris holding a razor-thin advantage, possibly signaling a last-minute surge that could push her over the edge.
fivethrityeight.com final modeling as of Tuesday, November 5th leading up to the election.
Another intriguing indicator comes from the betting markets, which currently favor Trump. By Tuesday afternoon, FanDuel had Trump as the -188 favorite, while Harris held +152 odds. This suggests that, despite Harris’s narrow lead in polls, betting markets see Trump as having a slight edge.
What a Trump Win Means for the U.S.
If Trump emerges victorious, expect swift moves on trade, immigration, and social issues:
Economy: Trump has signaled a return to protectionist policies, likely including new tariffs and trade renegotiations. His campaign rhetoric suggests an aggressive stance on shielding American industry.
Immigration: Trump has promised the largest mass deportation in U.S. history, targeting an estimated 21 million undocumented immigrants, which could lead to major social and political upheaval.
Abortion: A second Trump term is likely to solidify anti-abortion policies nationwide. Ten states currently have referendums on abortion rights, with potential ripple effects on healthcare access for women.
What a Harris Win Means for the U.S.
A Harris presidency would focus on economic recovery, environmental initiatives, and stabilizing reproductive rights:
Economy: Harris aims to boost American manufacturing, particularly in green industries, through initiatives similar to the Inflation Reduction Act.
Border Security: Harris has indicated plans to revive a previously stalled Border Protection Bill, emphasizing a balanced approach to immigration and border safety.
Abortion: Harris has pledged to pass federal legislation protecting abortion access across the country, signaling a stark contrast to Trump’s stance.
A unique factor in this election is Trump’s preemptive claims of election fraud, which could lead to a protracted dispute and further instability, especially if he refuses to concede.
What a Trump Win Means for Canada
A Trump presidency would bring both economic challenges and geopolitical shifts for Canada:
Trade and Tariffs: Trump’s protectionist stance could see new tariffs on Canadian goods, particularly in the steel and lumber sectors. These tariffs would pressure Canada’s economy, potentially leading to inflation and interest rate hikes.
Defense: Canada would likely face intensified pressure from the U.S. to meet its NATO spending commitments.
Environmental Policy: Trump’s policies on climate could reduce U.S.-Canada cooperation on environmental issues, affecting joint conservation efforts.
Diplomatic Relations: Trump’s legal troubles, which have led to travel restrictions to several countries including Canada, could complicate diplomacy and state visits.
What a Harris Win Means for Canada
A Harris administration would likely strengthen Canada-U.S. relations through collaborative policies:
Trade: Harris is expected to build on the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, with a focus on fair trade that benefits Canadian exporters and aligns with North American supply chain goals.
Environmental Cooperation: Harris’s strong climate agenda would promote collaboration with Canada on emissions reductions and renewable energy projects, which may lead to joint action on climate goals.
Defense: Harris would reinforce U.S. commitment to NATO and encourage Canada to meet its defense spending targets, aiming for a stronger joint security framework.
Diplomatic Ties: Harris’s personal connection to Canada, having spent part of her youth in Montreal, supports favorable diplomatic ties, likely leading to open dialogue and a shared approach on bilateral issues.
Conclusion
Tonight’s election is more than a contest between two candidates; it’s a pivotal moment for North America and beyond. For Canadians, the outcome will directly impact trade, security, environmental cooperation, and diplomatic relations. As the final ballots are cast and the world watches with bated breath, one thing is clear: the future of Canada-U.S. relations hangs in the balance.
