The Best Timing for a Scandal? Are Doug Ford and the PC Party Benefiting from Weak Opposition?
Premier Ford addresses the media as greenbelt fallout continues. source: Katherine DeClerq-CTV News
As the Greenbelt scandal continues to evolve a new political bombshell seemingly drops every week. There is no doubt that the Doug Ford cabinet is in full blown damage mitigation mode as resignations pile up and polling numbers continue to slip. However, for the PC party this may be the best possible time for this scandal to have happened. Both opposition parties have yet to gain significant traction in the polls as the scandal drags on. For the NDP, new Leader Marit Stiles has struggled to establish an identity with Ontario voters in the first year at the helm of His Majesty’s Official Opposition. The leaderless Ontario Liberal Party, which hold less than ten seats in the legislature, will continue to lack identity until at least December when the party’s leadership race culminates. The lack of effective of leadership from the opposition parties may have elevated the floor to which the Doug Ford Government will slide to, making the timing of this scandal rather fortunate for the government.
Who is Marit Stiles?
Leader of His Majesty’s Opposition Marit Stiles. Source: Instagram
The face of the Ontario NDP changed after the last election when long-time leader Andrea Horwath failed to gain enough support to move the party from official opposition to governing. Horwath was the leader of the Ontario NDP for thirteen years and often polled the most favourably in likeability amongst party leaders in the province. When Horwath and the NDP parted ways after a disappointing election in 2022, she went on to continue her political success by getting elected as Mayor of Hamilton. This led to the NDP selecting Marit Stiles as their new leader and subsequently the leader of the opposition.
Marit Stiles has been around the Ontario NDP her whole career working in the offices of MPP’s and with the actor’s union ACTRA before being elected into public office herself in 2018. Officially Stiles has been the Leader of the Opposition since February of this year. As is the case with many new opposition leaders it takes some time for voters to warm up to them. Some leaders never in fact get over it, for example a main criticism of Erin O’Toole in the last federal election is that he was fairly unknown to Canadian voters, despite tremendous efforts by the Conservative Party of Canada to publicize him.
Stiles is less likely to encounter the same challenges as O'Toole, primarily due to her evident advantages stemming from the Greenbelt scandal. However, it is worth noting that Stiles' comparatively lower public profile has inadvertently played into Doug Ford's hands throughout this controversy. A seasoned opposition leader would have been able to navigate this obstacle more smoothly, as they would already possess a well-defined identity among Ontarians. Consequently, their political resistance against the government would likely have resonated more effectively with the public.
The Missing Liberal Party
The Ontario Liberals are currently in the process of rebuilding their political standing following substantial losses in the past two election cycles. Their Interim Leader, John Fraser, holds a temporary position, and the party's limited representation in the legislature presents a significant challenge in terms of making a substantial impact regarding the Greenbelt scandal. The lack of robust leadership from a party that was once a dominant force in Ontario politics has undeniably played into Premier Ford's favour, as well as that of his government. This absence represents one less dissenting voice challenging the ongoing damage control efforts being put forth by the PC Party.
The Liberals will remain in the political wilderness until at least December of this year when they choose a new leader by which time the political news cycle may have well moved passed the Greenbelt issue.
Impeccable Timing for Ford
The timing of the Greenbelt scandal could be viewed as remarkably advantageous for Premier Doug Ford and the Ontario PC Party. As this scandal unfolds and continues to dominate headlines, it becomes evident that the government is engaged in a vigorous damage control effort, marked by resignations and declining poll numbers. However, the opposition parties are grappling with their own challenges that have inadvertently bolstered the government's position.
In this complex political landscape, the timing of the scandal has, perhaps ironically, played into the hands of Premier Ford's government. As the scandal continues to unfold, it remains to be seen how these dynamics will shape the future of Ontario politics and whether the PC Party can weather the storm relatively unscathed.
